Build the way out.

What’s broken in Ottawa’s housing market, and how we fix it.

By Alex Lawson

In Ottawa right now, there are two rents.

There’s yours, if you signed your lease three years ago. And then there’s the one your neighbour is being asked to pay if they have to find a new place this week.

The gap between those two numbers is about $700 a month.

That’s where I want to start, because once you see that gap, you understand why Ottawa’s housing crisis is also a homelessness crisis. The renter who has to move and the renter who can’t afford to are the same person.

The numbers

When Mark Sutcliffe took office in late 2022, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Ottawa was $1,625 a month. By October 2025 it was $1,916.

That’s $291 more a month. Close to $3,500 a year, out of a household that very likely did not get a $3,500 raise.

Now here’s the part that should make you angry.

In May 2024, when rents had already gone up, council voted to raise development charges by 11 percent. Up to $6,220 added to the cost of every new home outside the Greenbelt.

The federal government wrote the city a letter saying: if you do this, your Housing Accelerator Fund money is at risk.

Council went ahead anyway.

Builders walked away. Housing starts slowed significantly. The market we needed to cool down is the market we made worse.

Two classes of renter

Here’s something most people don’t know.

If you signed a lease in Ottawa in 2022, you’re protected by Ontario’s rent-control rules. Your landlord can only raise your rent by about 2.5 percent a year. So you’re paying around $1,750 today, give or take. Pretty close to what you started at.

If you’re looking for a place this week, the average asking rent for a two-bedroom in Ottawa is $2,490.

That’s $700 more a month than the renter next door who stayed put.

Eight thousand dollars a year, to move two streets over.

That’s why the renter who has to move is scared. Because the landlord is selling. Because the building is going condo. Because there’s a divorce. Because the family grew.

That renter has a reason to be scared.

The vacancy story nobody is telling you

You may have heard that Ottawa’s rental market “eased” in 2025. The headline says vacancy is up to 3 percent. Things are getting better.

The headline is lying.

The vacancy rate for the units a working family can actually afford? Under 1 percent.

The vacancy rate for newly built units, almost all priced above $2,000 a month? 6.7 percent. More than double the city average.

The new supply is going to the wrong half of the market.

That isn’t a market problem. That’s a policy problem. We’re paying builders the wrong incentives.

Five things, in the first year

One. Cut development charges in half for one year, immediately.

A clear signal to every builder in Ottawa: build two- and three-bedroom rentals now, while the door is open. The target is a starting rent around $1,800 a month for a two-bedroom and $2,200 for a three-bedroom. Not subsidized units. Not a lottery. Real homes a working family can afford on one income, or a young couple on theirs. Homes where you can start a family. Homes that get adult kids out of their parents’ basement and into a place of their own.

Two. If the market doesn’t deliver, I will.

If after twelve months the industry isn’t well on its way to building the family-sized rental supply Ottawa needs, the city will step in directly. Public land. Public financing partners. A shovel-ready package that stops waiting and starts building.

Three. Fix shelter safety.

A top-to-bottom review of shelter operations in Ottawa, with police, paramedics, and shelter operators at the table, on a 90-day timeline with public terms of reference. The drug crisis inside Ottawa’s shelter system is a public safety failure for the people inside the buildings and the neighbourhoods around them. Both groups deserve a system that works.

Four. Back the people doing the work.

The Alliance to End Homelessness, Shepherds of Good Hope, the Youth Services Bureau, and Ottawa’s frontline service network are getting results despite the city, not because of it. As mayor, I’ll treat them as partners, not press-conference props. The diversion model that took the average shelter stay from 90 days to 11 is exactly the kind of measurable result Ottawa should be scaling.

Five. Bring a delivery plan to every partnership.

Ottawa’s mayor should walk into federal-municipal partnerships with a delivery plan, not a thank-you speech. If the city wants senior governments to keep partnering with us, the city has to deliver on its end first. The federal cheques will keep coming when Ottawa shows it can put shovels in the ground.

Why this matters

The renter who can’t make rent this month is someone facing homelessness three months from now. Every month Ottawa doesn’t build a two-bedroom they can afford, that’s a family closer to a shelter that isn’t safe.

I build things for a living. I run framing crews on Ottawa job sites. I know what slows a project to a crawl and what gets it built. I know what every dollar of development charges does to the rent of a family on the other end.

Mark Sutcliffe is not a bad person. But Ottawa’s housing problem has gotten worse on his watch and so has the homelessness crisis it produces. Good intentions are not enough. Outcomes speak for themselves.

Compassion without competence is its own kind of cruelty. Ottawa hasn’t been short on compassion. It’s been short on results.

We’ve got a lot of work to do.

Ottawa deserves better.